Iran Regime’s Regional Adventurism Cannot Mask Its Strategic Weakness

Alireza Jafarzadeh, the deputy director of the U.S. office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, says Tehran’s missile attacks into Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan have failed to mask the clerical regime’s weaknesses, especially in the eyes of its support base.

Tehran’s recent missile attacks intended to restore lost deterrence – primarily against the regime’s main existential threat: the Iranian people seeking change!

The reckless power projection exercised by Tehran is rooted in a deep-seated fear of its citizens and the potential for the next uprising. It is a deliberate distraction from pressing internal issues.”

— Alireza Jafarzadeh, Deputy Director of NCRI’s Washington Office

WASHINGTON, DC, UNITED STATES, January 25, 2024 / — Earlier this month, the Iranian regime launched ballistic missile attacks on Iraq, Syria, and, notably, Pakistan, all within a 24-hour period. These attacks represent a desperate move by a regime whose façade as a regional power is crumbling, especially in the eyes of its dwindling support base.

The recent killings of several high-ranking IRGC commanders, along with attacks against the regime’s repressive centers and individuals across Iran, led the regime’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, to calculate that such missile attacks in the region would restore deterrence – primarily against the regime’s most existential threat: the Iranian people themselves.

However, this gamble has spectacularly backfired, further exposing the regime’s inherent weaknesses. Mere hollow slogans and boasts of military might cannot mask the ruling theocracy’s strategic vulnerabilities.

Fawad Hossein, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, commented on Iran’s missile strike in Erbil, stating, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has internal problems and is trying to export them outside the country.”

This sentiment echoes the common belief among the Iranian populace that the regime’s projection of power, including missile launches, is rooted in a deep-seated fear of its own citizens and the potential for the next uprising. The objective of creating a regional crisis is seen as a deliberate distraction from pressing internal issues.

Lasting peace depends on strategic decision-making that acknowledges a pivotal truth: The Iranian people, not the regime, are the key agents of change. They are courageously fighting for their fundamental rights against the repressive forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is imperative that Washington and other Western capitals recognize the Iranian people’s legitimate right to challenge their oppressive rulers, bring them down, and strive for freedom.

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The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) is a democratic coalition of Iranian opposition organizations and personalities and was founded in Tehran, Iran, in July 1981, as the alternative to the clerical regime, a month after the onset of the nationwide resistance to overthrow the ruling dictatorship.

The NCRI is committed to the affirmation of the people’s sovereignty in a republic founded on universal suffrage and pluralism; gender equality; separation of religion and state and freedom of religions and faiths; freedom of thought, press, and association; support for peace in the Middle East; plan for the autonomy of Iranian nationalities and ethnicities; and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, as embodied in Mrs. Maryam Rajavi’s 10-Point Plan for Future Iran.

The NCRI would serve as a provisional government led by its President-elect Mrs. Rajavi, and its primary responsibility will be to hold free and fair elections for a national and constituent assembly within six months to ensure the peaceful transition of power to the elected representatives of the Iranian people.

Iran’s largest, most organized opposition group, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), also referred to as the MEK, is the principal member of the NCRI.


These materials are being distributed by the National Council of Resistance of Iran-U.S. Representative Office (NCRI-US). Additional information is on file with the Department of Justice, Washington, D.C.

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