NY-4 Congressional Race Locked in a Statistical Tie as Key Issues Drive Voter Preferences

Gotham Polling & Analytics

Gotham Government Relations

NEW YORK CITY, NY, UNITED STATES, October 25, 2024 /EINPresswire.com/ — Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC (Gotham Polling), a cutting-edge polling and analytics firm founded by analytical and political experts Stephen Graves, President; David Schwartz, Chairman; and Denny Salas, Executive Vice President, launched today, releasing a survey conducted on NY’s 4th US Congressional District (CD4).

The survey of likely voters in CD4, shows a razor-thin margin between incumbent Republican Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen. With 46% of likely voters supporting D’Esposito and 45% backing Gillen, the race is currently too close to call, falling well within the poll’s margin of error.

Poll Details:

• Sample size: 734 respondents

• Margin of error: ±3.62% at a 95% confidence interval

• Voter turnout: 7.7% of respondents have already voted, and 88.1% are “likely” to vote at the time surveyed.

Key Findings:

• D’Esposito leads with 46.0% of the likely vote, supported predominantly by men (48%), older voters, and Republicans.

• Gillen trails closely with 45.0%, gaining strong support from women (59%) and Democrats.

• 6% of voters remain unsure about their choice, and 1.8% say they will vote for neither candidate.

Observations:

• D’Esposito is winning a greater portion of independent voters (26% vs 19%) and more cross over votes (18%) compared to Gillen (11%).

• A combined 55.6% of voters selected the Inflation/Economy and Immigration as their top issue, which are expected to favor Republican candidates.

• Perhaps the most significant challenge to Gillen is that 49.3% of survey respondents believed generic Republican candidates would be more likely to act on their favored issue, while Democrats garnered only 46.2%.

• Conversely, the challenge to D’Esposito is that he is potentially trailing generic Republican sentiment by over 3% points. That provides opportunities for both candidates to capture the 6% that were still undecided but likely to vote.

Voter Issues:

The top issues driving voter decisions include:

• 38.2% of likely voters cite inflation and the economy as the most important issue.

• 18.7% prioritize reproductive rights, particularly among women voters.

• 17.4% focus on immigration.

• Other concerns include crime and public safety (6%) and the U.S. role in global affairs (6.9%).

With a margin of error of ±3.62%, the race remains a statistical tie, and the outcome could be swayed by undecided voters and turnout among key demographics like independents and younger female voters.

For the full results of the survey, see https://gothampolling.com/poll-ny-cd4-oct-2024/

Methodology Statement:

The poll was conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics between October 11 and October 19, 2024, to assess voter preferences in New York’s 4th Congressional District (CD4) ahead of the November general election.

Key Details:

• Sample Size: 734 total respondents, 703 of whom qualified as “likely voters” or had already voted.

• Survey Mode: Text message invitations were sent to respondents.

• Population: The poll targeted registered voters in CD4 who had voted in the last presidential election, drawn from the L2-data.com voter registration database.

• Sampling Method: Respondents were randomly selected from the voter registration database, with efforts to ensure representation across key demographic groups such as age, gender, and party affiliation. Surveys were completed by those who qualified as likely voters or had already voted.

• Weighting: The data were weighted to reflect the demographic and partisan composition of the district, modeled around voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election. The weighting accounted for variables such as age, gender, and party registration. Race and ethnicity were self-identified by respondents but not included in the weighting model.

• Margin of Error: ±3.62% at a 95% confidence interval. This margin applies to the full sample of 734 respondents.

• Survey Completion: Respondents who indicated they were either likely to vote or had already voted were eligible to complete the full survey.

MORE ON GOTHAM POLLING & ANALYTICS LLC.

Gotham Polling & Analytics was established as an affiliate of Gotham Government Relations, LLC (frequently ranked by City and State as one of NY’s premier lobbying firms) will focus on providing actionable data insights to inform strategic decision-making for candidates, businesses, and policy interests across New York City, New York State, and the United States.

“Modern polling may seem more accessible with new software and outreach methods, but it’s actually more challenging, requiring more nuanced decisions and expertise,” said Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “That’s why polling is both art and science. Our team blends data scientists and PhDs in statistical methods with experts in public psychology and political operations. We don’t just collect data, we interpret it—turning insights into actionable strategies to help clients navigate today’s complex political landscape.”

Gotham Polling & Analytics will empower clients to make data-driven decisions, identify trends, and stay ahead of the curve by leveraging our expertise in polling, survey research, and focus groups. Our services include:

• Polling and Survey Research: Custom-designed surveys to gauge public opinion, track voter sentiment, and measure the effectiveness of campaigns.

• Focus Groups: Moderated discussions to gather nuanced insights into voter attitudes, preferences, and motivations.

• Data Analytics: Advanced statistical analysis to identify trends, patterns, and correlations, providing actionable intelligence for strategic decision-making.

“Polling is about more than just identifying trends—it’s about translating data into meaningful insights that lead to strategic decisions,” added David Schwartz, Chairman of Gotham Polling & Analytics. “At Gotham Polling, we help clients see beyond the numbers to understand the sentiment and motivations of their constituents, ensuring they can act with confidence.”

Gotham Polling sees its core markets as:

• Political Campaigns: Gotham Polling delivers precise polling for political candidates, helping refine messaging, target voters, and allocate resources efficiently. With deep political experience and advanced polling methods, we help campaigns stay competitive and informed.

• Municipal Governments: Gotham provides localized polling for city leaders, offering critical insights into public opinion on key issues like housing and safety. Our data helps guide effective policymaking based on community needs.

• Advocacy Groups and Businesses: We craft tailored surveys and analytics to guide and support advocacy, helping shape public policy and influence decision-makers with targeted, data-driven strategies.

“At Gotham Polling & Analytics, we deliver more than just numbers – we provide a deeper understanding of the voters, constituents, and customers that matter most to our clients,” said Denny Salas, Executive Vice President.

Gotham Polling & Analytics builds on the proven success of Gotham Government Relations and its extensive voter behavior analytics, which have been featured in major publications including NY Post, and New York Daily News. Examples of their recent studies and work:

• Election Turnout Studies: The report by Gotham Government Relations shows that voters age 50 and up represented 71.2% of the electorate in the February 13 special election to fill the 3rd Congressional District seat vacated by Republican George Santos, who was expelled following alleged financial violations.

• Voter Registration Analysis: The number of newly registered independent voters in New York City and Long Island grew by 14.4% between the last presidential election in November 2020 and May 2023, according to an AARP New York-sponsored analysis of voter rolls by Gotham Government Relations.

About Gotham Polling & Analytics:

Gotham Polling & Analytics is a leading polling and analytics firm providing data-driven insights to inform strategic decision-making for candidates, businesses, and policy interests. With a proven track record of delivering accurate and actionable intelligence, our team of experts is dedicated to helping clients succeed in an ever-changing political and business environment.

Media Contact:

Jacquie Tellez
Gotham Polling & Analytics
[email protected]

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